PHOTO BY ROBIN OPSAHL/IOWA CAPITAL DISPATCH Charlie Cook, founder of Cook Political Report, spoke about the 2024 election season at Drake University in Des Moines on Nov. 29, 2023.

Political expert Charlie Cook, the founder of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Monday he thinks Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand will win Iowa’s gubernatorial election, but the U.S. Senate race between State Rep. Josh Turek and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson may not be as competitive as Democrats might think.

Cook said Iowa is no longer considered a “swing” state and “hasn’t been for a long time,” adding that he does not believe Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat will flip due to hyperpolarization in modern politics.

“I’m a bit more skeptical in federal races because to me, if a Republican is disaffected this year, they’re a heck of a lot more likely to not show up or to skip over various offices on the ballot than they are to vote for a Democrat,” Cook said. “We’ll have to wait and see whether the Iowa Senate flips, but I’d give it probably a 1 in 4 chance.”

The Cook Political Report changed its rating of Iowa’s U.S. Senate race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” on June 3. Polls released in early July showed a tight race, with Turek leading a FOX News poll released July 2 by 4 percentage points and Hinson leading a July 1 New York Times/Siena poll by 2 points.

Cook participated Monday in a Zoom call with the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative where he discussed the national political landscape, saying the party of the president typically sees lower turnout during midterm elections.

“What typically happens is that people that either belong to, or lean towards a president’s party, sometimes they’re a little complacent,” Cook said. “Sometimes they’re a little disappointed. Sometimes they’re deeply disillusioned. Rarely are they fired up, energized, and so they just simply don’t turn out in midterm elections nearly the way they do in presidential years.”

Cook said Iowa is behaving “differently” in the 2026 election cycle compared to other states, opening the door for the governor’s seat and a couple of U.S. House races to flip to Democrats. Cook did not cite specific Iowa congressional districts he believes will flip.

“The governor’s race, I think it probably will flip,” Cook said. “There’s some House races that may skip over a little bit, but we’re not seeing as much of that in other states as we are in Iowa, and we’ll have to wait and see whether the Iowa Senate (seat) flips.”

Cook highlighted the importance of independent voters, a small number of people who often sway elections.

Cook said “ticket splitting,” voting for candidates in both parties, is rare nowadays, and independents will vote for one specific party “90 to 95% of the time.”

“Really, only 10% of all registered voters are really independents that vote,” Cook said. “They tend to be fickle. They tend to get buyer’s remorse. They tend to turn against a president on a moment’s notice, and stay that way, so they disproportionately break for the opposition party these days.”

Cook cited that Trump’s average disapproval rating hovers around 50%, while his approval across multiple polls sits at approximately 39 to 40%. Based on those numbers, Cook said he believes Republicans will lose seats in Congress.

Cook added that the party that controls the presidency has lost House and Senate seats in all but two midterm elections since World War II.

“Any polling data you look at, the energy level difference between Democrats and Republicans is huge this year, with Democrats hyper-motivated and Republicans not so much, and independents breaking very solidly against the president and Republicans as well,” Cook said. “This midterm seems to be shaping up exactly like the historic norm.”

Ranked-choice voting

Cook also discussed his displeasure with the current voting system in the U.S., citing Maine and Alaska as two states that have successfully implemented ranked-choice voting. Ranked-choice voting is an alternative voting system where if a candidate receives at least 50% of first-place votes, they win the election. If no candidate receives a majority, a series of instant run-off elections are held until a candidate receives 50%.

The purpose of ranked-choice voting is to fight against the United States’ two-party system by encouraging more third-party candidates, with the hope that Republicans and Democrats would look to appeal to a broader coalition.

“I think ranked choice is a good thing,” Cook said. “I think primaries where independents are allowed to vote in either party’s primary, I think that’s pretty healthy. Our system was designed by the founders, and it worked really well for 200 years, and for the last 50, it has not.”