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Cattle stampede, Win Upward Race
Of all the actively traded US commodity markets, Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle rose the most, leaving vegetable proteins and hogs in the dust. Our supply is now the lowest in 75 years. Ranchers don't see any way to expand their herds while selling off valuable heifers now as selling potential mama cattle would create an even greater shortage in the future. So selling cattle now would make the price head higher while not selling them now also would make the price move higher. This dilemma provides no path to lower prices save the one chance - that higher prices might cause US consumers to avoid buying beef. No sign of that yet but a recession, or fears of recession, could be the origin of a decline. Another bullish factor is that lack of animals to slaughter is causing those facilities to close which could cause yet another shortage of dressed beef even if "fat cattle" eventually come available. A massive drought and higher diesel prices only exacerbated the cost of production. Consumers hope that the Trump administration promises to import beef from Brazil will moderate prices but thus far, that has not happened. Cattle for December delivery surged from $2 per pound to $2.21 this week.
Gold Less Bold?
Gold prices slipped below the $4,000 mark Thursday, down more than 3% and far below the $5,600 January 2026 price. Rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and profit-taking by investors have all contributed to the price slip. Widely publicized jumps in both consumer prices and wholesale prices provided incentive for our Federal Reserve Bank to plan future interest raises which tend to provide reason for "Goldbugs" as well as speculators to liquidate their hoards.
El Nino to Muscle Up
A super El Nino, an informal label defined as "very strong El Niño" by NOAA, intensified through the summer and fall of 2026 and is expected to continue into the spring of 2027. The pattern suppressed the Atlantic hurricane season while fueling active Pacific tropical systems that tied historic records. The 2026-27 winter outlook for the Northern and Midwestern US states leans toward warmer-than-average temps and drier-than average-conditions. The Southern US should expect wetter-than-average conditions. Though the effects on our farmers may be modest, the impact on Latin America and Africa could become a "behemoth" and a "wrecking ball." Extreme heat, floods and droughts will likely hit those regions according to the United Nations.
CME midday prices - January Soybeans, $12.32; December Corn, $4.46; December Wheat, $5.92. Livestock per 100 pounds: December Cattle, $220.65; December Hogs, $55.90. Metals per troy ounce: December Gold, $3,883; December Silver, $49.05, December Copper per pound: $6.09. December Crude oil per barrel: (WTI) $88.80. September S&P futures traded at 7564.
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Walt Breitinger is a commodity futures broker in Indiana. He can be reached at 800-411-3888 or www.indianafutures.com.
Pinion Futures, LLC, a CFTC registered Introducing Broker and NFA Member (NFA #0284447,) is a fully owned subsidiary of Pinion Risk Management LLC. Information contained herein is believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Futures and options trading involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.