Trump’s short-term policies have long-term repercussions

Historians have revealed due to short-term policy-making decisions, five U.S. Presidents failed to secure a second term. Presidents William Taft (Rep.), Herbert Hoover (Rep.), Gerald Ford (Rep.), Jimmy Carter (Dem.) and George H.W. Bush (Rep.) were predominantly short-term thinkers and their policies led to a recession, a difficult economic environment and a one term of office.

America’s prominent economists, corporate gurus, financial wizards and political scientists are now claiming Trump’s temperament, following questionable economic advisers’ recommendations and off-the-cuff Twitter-uttered and not-well-thought-out short-term policy edicts may get himself into a heap of trouble come November 3, 2020, becoming statistic No. 6.

Let’s examine a few of Trump’s policies that could, very likely, lead America toward economic chaos and a new 46th president.

On international trade, Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, renegotiating NAFTA, scolding NATO, United Nations and World Trade Organization, demeaning multiple foreign leaders, reversing historic trade relations via a trade war with China, Mexico, Canada and 28 European countries, to name a few, will appease his political base but will ultimately cost America in multiple ways. One example: The proposed tariff on Mexico will cost 400,000 American jobs and equate to a tax to U.S. consumers of $93 billion.

It’s reported Trump’s short-term international policy thinking will cause America to lose its 240 year global trade leadership position with our 75 predominant trading partners. Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, a firm that specializes in analyzing large-scale global hazards, said, “if you look at people who support Trump internationally, it’s really only people in countries that want the United States to fail.” Since Trump continually boasts about wanting to make America first, allies know they are second fiddle and he can’t be trusted. What country, in their right mind, would want to continue working with Trump, an after-me-you-come-first type of president, versus collaborating with countries they can trust?

Tariffs, which evolve into an add-on tax to purchase goods, hurt consumers, damage America’s businesses and lower investor confidence. The trade war has forced companies to cut back on hiring, innovation and expansion. If the trade war continues, many economists expect unemployment numbers to reach 7 percent, stock market to plummet about 30 percent and U.S. businesses to lose $85 billion. The Federal Reserve’s recent reaction to Trump’s actions and disappointing results reveals a recession is most likely to occur in 2020 or 2021.

Trump’s short-term thinking tax cuts have already added $1.5 trillion to the U.S. ballooning federal deficit ($22.8 trillion) and a rising U.S. dollar will do much more to hinder exports and increase imports than any trade agreement, thereby causing further rising trade deficits. Trump’s tax cuts to corporations created a $1.5 trillion corporate tax giveaway that ensured less tax revenue to the U.S. Treasury. Instead of companies taking their tax cut to create jobs and raise wages, they purchased their own stock (record breaking $436.6 billion), which boosted earnings and CEO bonuses.

Trump’s immigration policy, while appealing to his base, will chase away well-educated immigrants that, heretofore, have created more business start-ups and generated more patents for U.S. companies than the average American. Fewer less-educated immigrants, who’ve taken back-breaking jobs (literally) most Americans detest, will also go elsewhere, causing eventual havoc to USA’s agriculture sector and the price of groceries.

In summation, research is replete Trump’s short-term policy-making might well be perceived as a gain for Trump’s shrinking political base but they are creating long-term pains for the remaining 65 percent of America. The next time you hear any politician tout a policy, use your critical thinking skills to ponder its long-term effect. Your analysis may be quite sobering.

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Steve Corbin is the Professor Emeritus of Marketing, University of Northern Iowa. He can be reached at Steven.B.Corbin@gmail.com.