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Trump wins his standoff with Iran

Democrats warned that President Trump’s decision to take out Iranian terrorist mastermind Qassem Soleimani had put the United States on the path toward a cataclysmic war with Iran. They were dead wrong. Trump won his standoff with Iran.

When Trump drew his red line — warning Tehran that if it killed even one American, the United States would respond militarily against Iran — the regime never expected him to enforce it. His decision to kill Soleimani clearly stunned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and left his regime chastened. A regime that regularly threatens “Death to America!” and promises to wipe Israel off the face of the earth suddenly embraced proportionality and legality. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran would “respond, but we will respond proportionally, not disproportionally. We will respond lawfully, we are not lawless people like President Trump.” Quite a departure for the world’s premier state sponsor of terrorism.

Iran’s retaliation was just as muted as its threats. Tehran could have targeted large, heavily populated U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf, all of which are within range of Iranian missiles. Instead, it fired a handful of missiles at bases in Iraq, in an attack that deliberately did not target American troops. The Iranians warned Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi in advance of the attack — a message they knew he would pass on to the United States. To control the outcome, they carried out the strike themselves, rather than relying on Shiite militia proxies in Iraq, who might accidentally kill an American. According to Fox News’s Jennifer Griffin, the Pentagon “believes there was a political decision taken in Tehran NOT to kill Americans … Even within that target, the Iranians chose to hit dirt rather than runways … so as not to escalate militarily.”

The objective appeared to be political, not military. They wanted their people to see Iranian missiles firing at the Americans, without actually killing one — provoking an even more devastating U.S. response. And once it was over, Zarif announced on Twitter that Iran’s response was complete and meekly added that “we do not seek escalation or war.”

In other words, the Iranians blinked. All the overwrought warnings of a U.S.-Iran conflagration were wrong. Trump understood what his critics did not — that the Iranian regime’s No. 1 priority is the preservation of the regime. Before the Soleimani strike, Iran doubted Trump’s resolve. After the Soleimani strike, they knew Trump was serious when the president warned that next time “Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD.” Trump has treated Iran for what it is — a bully. When confronted, bullies back down.

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